10. June 2021
By Adam Englert
The Tale of the Tape
This weekend the inevitable could happen yet again: if Man City beat Chelsea on Saturday Pep’s side will regain the title they relinquished to Liverpool last season. This would be the third title in the reign of Pep Guardiola, the fifth altogether since Man City were taken over by the Abu Dhabi United Group in 2008. United fans in recent years have almost accepted the fact that their most immediate neighbours have gained the upper hand over them in the league, finishing above United every season since Sir Alex Ferguson title winning fairy tale finale in 2013.
Yet, early in the season it looked like the tide may be turning, as a resurgent United regained top spot in the League in January for the first time since 2015. However, this high was short lived, as a combination of a poor run of form in January and February, as well as a City winning streak of 21 games in all competitions put the Citizens back in frim control of the title race. By March United at least had the satisfaction of winning 2:0 at the Etihad in March, but by then Pep’s side had amassed a virtually unassailable lead, and from then on never really looked back.
Apart from the usual “what ifs” every campaign offers in retrospect, United have unarguably been well beaten to the title again this season, although Ole’s side have admittedly been much improved since scraping 3rd spot last time out. While pessimists might argue that United will fall short even in years to come, even the most optimistic of United fans will feel that something is still missing if we are to challenge for the title anytime soon. Hence, the question arises how far City are actually ahead of us in the race for next year’s title? Or to put it into less philosophical terms, what does Ole Gunnar Solskjaer have to do over the summer to turn his team into a Premier League winning size?
Thus, we have looked at some of the key areas of this season, be it statistics, tactics, transfers or simply results to determine how the title was won and lost, but most importantly how Ole’s team can finally silence the Noisy Neighbours and regain the Premier League crown for the first time in nine years.
Have Man City been more consistent?
Without delving into the statistics this season, it is blatantly obvious that United have been let down by their lack of consistency. Reflecting on this season’s results it can be said that both teams started the season slowly, mainly due to long runs in their respective European campaigns in August, with United starting particularly sluggishly only taking 7 points from the first 7 games. By January however United had recovered more convincingly ,standing top of the table, after an unbeaten run of 13 league games starting in November.
However, this resurgence came to an end with a catastrophic 2-1 home loss to Sheffield United, marking the beginning of a patchy run, whereby United only won twice in eight games. In contrast City went on a historic winning run after a 1-1 draw at West Brom in December, winning 15 league games on the trot, before finally tasting defeat in the Manchester Derby at the beginning of March. Without being a psychic, it is very probable that this winning run swung the title race in City’s favour, considering United’s longest winning run came around the most recent international break, standing at only five wins. United are actually still on a historic run of their own, having not lost an away game in the league since January 2020, while being two undefeated trips away from staying a whole season unbeaten on the road.
Yet, simply by looking at these two streaks the difference between the two sides becomes more clear. City’s run demonstrates their habit of winning games, whereas in United’s case the onus was simply on staying undefeated. As the table currently stands United and City have both lost four matches all season, yet in contrast United have drawn five games more, which in the modern game translates to a giant gulf of 10 points. In hindsight neither the 2-1 loss to the Blades, nor the 6-1 thrashing by Spurs led to United’s downfall, but rather a lack of a killer instinct, maybe best exemplified by last week’s 0:0 at Elland Road. In summary, City have simply been better at winning , whereas United’s tenacity and resistance away from home has been mostly in vain, at least in the pursuit of the title.
Are Man City better at winning?
Talking of winning, it appears that City are not just better at winning, but generally win games more easily. This season United have won ten league games by a margin of one goal (55% of wins), compared to City’s eight (less than 33%), which is a slight indicator that City have had to work less hard for the three points. Moreover, the conclusion that City have made winning games easier for themselves is supported more evidently when we look at the half time scores. Overall, City have led 18 games at half time which they have gone on to win, while United have only been ahead in 6 of their 19 wins at the break. Another statistic which backs up this inclination if we look at the two sides’ comeback wins. United have had to dig deep on nine occasions this campaign, coming back from going a goal down to eventually win the game. In contrast, City’s 2-1 win at Aston Villa two weeks ago was the only time Pep’s side won a game after going behind.
On the one hand we can applaud United’s grit and fighting spirit in the face of adversity and point the finger at City for a lack of bouncebackability, yet frankly over the course of a whole season you are not going to win a title when conceding the first goal on thirteen occasions, as United have done. As Fergie-esque and satisfying some of the comeback wins were, be it Cavani’s heroics in the 3:2 win at St Mary’s or the thriller in Brighton at the start of the season, they have taken a toll on Ole’s squad who have looked jaded over periods after Christmas. Cynics might argue that a win is a win and that you lose the title in the games you lose or draw, yet based on the numbers the lingering feeling remains that United need to make a habit of winning games more comfortably if they are to seriously challenge next season.
Is Man City’s squad better?
In terms of fatigue it is often argued that Man City have a bigger and better squad and have simply overwhelmed the opposition with the quality and depth of their roster. This is of course partly true, as Man City’s squad is the most expensive in the world with a combined worth of almost 1 billion pounds. Although Man United have often spent less than their Abu Dhabi funded rivals, their squad is only slightly inferior in value, being estimated at around the 700 million pound mark.
What has been apparent though is that Ole has not had the strength in depth he would have liked, exemplified by the appearances of his squad this season. Three players in particular, Harry Maguire, Bruno Fernandes and Aaron Wan-Bissaka have all featured prominently, each playing over 4 thousand minutes in all competitions. In a season which has already been shorter and more strenuous than most a number of United first teamers have had next to no rest, suggesting that they must be running on fumes at this stage of the campaign.
Contrarily, Pep has been far more willing to rotate his squad, with no player having played more than 45 games and only Ruben Dias getting anywhere close to the 4 thousand minute mark, while only Dias, Ederson and Rodri have started more than 40 games. This is a significant statistic compared to United who already have four outfield players in Maguire, Fernandes, Wan-Bissaka and Rashford with 50 games or more under their belt. Although the summer transfer window was hardly a success for United, they at least secured the signings of Donny van de Beek, Alex Telles and Edinson Cavani. Apart from Cavani who has excelled in the latter part of the season, Telles and van de Beek have hardly featured under Ole, both featuring just over 1.000 minutes all season.
Thus it comes as no surprise that it was the period after Christmas, when players are at their most fatigued after a relentless run of games that Man City swept aside their domestic competition with 15 wins on the bounce which can most likely be attributed to Guardiola’s policy of rotating players and using his squad more savilly than his Norwegian counterpart. In truth, Pep hasn’t always got it right, as seen in the FA Cup semi final loss to Chelsea, a game where he rested a number of players, which backfired essentially throwing away the chance of a historic quadruple. However, if asked Pep would probably do it again, as it is his mantra to trust in his, admittedly hugely talented, squad even if it means crashing out of a Cup competition. Ole might point to the impressive run to the Europa League Final, whereby he mainly played his best 11, yet over the course of a season his reluctance to rotate and rest his best players has probably caused more problems this term than he would like to admit.
Another disconcerting stat is the distribution of goals in United’s current squad. This Premier League season more than half of United’s goals have come from the source of Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and Edinson Cavani. While we can count ourselves lucky to have three such distinguished players at our disposal, it has become increasingly easier for teams to set up against us, knowing that our goal scoring threat is mainly focussed on three players in the squad, one of which hasn’t even featured too often due to injuries.
Once again City’s contrasting statistics point to a long term advantage since the goals have been distributed incredibly even at the Etihad this campaign. In all competitions, Man City have six players in double digits goal-wise, Ilkay Gundogan a midfielder being the unlikeliest of topscorers for a team who boast more natural finishers such as Aguero, Sterling or Jesus in their camp. Although City have scored more goals than any other team in the league, they have been scoring and creating goals from many different sources, thus making them less predictable and also harder to defend against.
Is Pep Guardiola simply a better manager?
In the fight for the title which was all but over by February many of Ole’s critics would argue that he is vastly inferior to his Catalan counterpart in the blue half of the city. Solskjaer has often unjustly been branded a “PE teacher”, while Pep Guardiola is considered by most as one of the greatest managers and innovators of the modern game. Yet, when the two managers have gone toe to toe the gulf in class has been less apparent if not non-existent. Since Ole’s appointment in late 2018 it is actually the Norwegian who slightly has the upper hand winning four games compared to Guardiola’s three. Particularly the Derby in March can be seen as a benchmark performance against our closest rivals, a game where United’s disciplined approach made City’s passing machine look very human, while also highlighting United’s devastating attacking potential on the break.
This is only one half of the tale however, as Premier League titles are not won and lost in the head-to-head encounters, but over the course of a season. It is here in the long-run, i.e the marathon not the sprint race, where Guardiola’s class comes to the fore. This season and last season to an even greater extent United have failed to dispatch smaller teams who have sat back and defended in numbers. In total United have dropped 12 points to teams in the bottom half of the table with the 2:1 home loss to Sheffield United being the pick of the bunch. City on the other hand excel against teams who sit back. Man City are built around possession and often simply overwhelm and eventually break down the most stubborn of opponents. In conclusion United have to be more clinical in front of goal and more creative in breaking down opponents if they are to get anywhere near City’s level in the long run. Ole’s track record against the big six has been quite impressive, but to become champion you have to perform against all 19 teams, not just the closest rivals in the table, something City have perfected over the last four seasons.
One part of being a Premiership manager is not just getting plan A right, but also if necessary plan A, B and C. For example, in the latter part of the season, Guardiola has adapted to the issue of his struggling strikers and opted for the false 9, using Phil Foden, Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan or Bernardo Silva in the most attacking role which has by no means diminished the attacking threat. Solskjaer has demonstrated that he is less adaptable with his line ups, rarely switching from the trusted 4-2-3-1 regardless of opposition, injuries or fatigue. Although the “never change a winning team” attitude has come to serve Premier League winning managers well in recent years, be it Ranieri’s 4-4-2 in 2016 or Conte’s 3-4-3 one season later, Solskjaer would do well to broaden his tactical horizon, simply to make his side less predictable and also as a way of finding different systems which accommodate different players.
Undoubtedly the Norwegian manager has improved vastly since taking over from Mourinho in 2018. Now there is a feeling that he may lack a few years experience at the highest level, but so far he has proven that he is a quick learner and unfazed by managing the biggest team in world football. In a way it his not his fault that his adversary is one of the greatest managers to ever coach in the Premier League, yet Solskjaer has taken on the challenge and beaten Guardiola on numerous occasions, a feat even more impressive considering the dysfunctional side he inherited two and half years ago, while Guardiola has had more time and certainly more funds and freedom in assembling a squad to his liking. Only time will tell if Solskjaer will ever transform United into title winners, but so far the early signs are promising that the best is still to come.
What must United do over the summer and next season?
Undoubtedly, United must spend over the summer and spend wisely if they are to get anywhere near challenging for next year’s title. Apart from the obvious positions such as CDM and centre forward, there is an urgent need to strengthen in depth, as Solskjaer has been over reliant on a handful of first team players who have played far too many games over the last 10 months. However, it is also up to our new director of football John Murtough, as well as the manager to find signings who not only fit the criteria but also buy into our way of playing football and the way the club is run. Finally it is then up to the manager to trust these players and find the courage to rotate his squad when necessary in order to keep his players fresh throughout the campaign. This means limiting the number of minutes, giving each player a fair chance and not holding back on making some tough decisions. Like a good general he must accept that he cannot win every battle, at least not with the same cavalry each fight, but rather that the incentive is to win the war even if it means sacrificing some individual victories along the way.
Unlike this covid-stricken campaign, there should be a much longer pre-season compared to last year, where we can give all our signings and fringe players more playing time and more opportunities to impress the manager, while there is also room to experiment and try new tactical variations. Hopefully this will make us more adaptable and less reliant on one or two systems, as well as giving Solskjaer more ideas on how to get the best out of his squad. When the season kicks off in August one of the tasks at hand will be to not repeat the mistakes from the previous campaigns. Starting the season strong, discovering consistency and developing a habit of winning games more convincingly, should just be three amendments which should put Ole’s men in good stead. More importantly however, the whole squad and backroom staff need to buy into the ethos of the football club and believe in the success of the club. This would obviously include the backing of the owners, who after the Super League fiasco can by no means be trusted, or even generally expected to be anything other than an obstacle in helping the club move forward. Fortunately though with the implementation of a director of football as well as the departure of Ed Woodward, hopefully to be replaced by a more experienced figure with the right amount of football nous, the sporting department of the football clubs seems to be moving in the right direction. What remains is for the players and manager to build on the progress of this season and generate the belief that even after 8 seasons of thunderous inferiority the “Noisy Neighbours” can be silenced once more.